There’s been plenty written and
talked about Chip Kelly and his high flying no huddle spread offense. Many thought he could revolutionize the NFL
game by bringing this up tempo college offense to the NFL. For the first few weeks that seemed to be the
case however, Kelly and the Eagles offense has reached rock bottom with two straight
scoreless
performances by the offense. Now
many, including me are questioning whether this offense can work in the NFL.
When looking at the Chip Kelly / Oregon Ducks offense over the past few years there is a common theme. They run very few plays out of very few formations. However, they run them very well and very fast. This is the tipping point for any offense, especially at the college level. Due to practice restrictions college coaches have to make a decision that is fairly straightforward. They either can run a bunch of plays out of very few formations, or they can run a bunch of formations and motions with less plays. Then there is a previously mysterious third category. People like Mike Leach and Chip Kelly have chosen to run very few plays and few formations. The genius in that is they constantly rep the plays to the point of near perfection. Combine that with top FBS college talent and that’s the difference between going to a BCS game and not making a bowl at all.
When looking at the Chip Kelly / Oregon Ducks offense over the past few years there is a common theme. They run very few plays out of very few formations. However, they run them very well and very fast. This is the tipping point for any offense, especially at the college level. Due to practice restrictions college coaches have to make a decision that is fairly straightforward. They either can run a bunch of plays out of very few formations, or they can run a bunch of formations and motions with less plays. Then there is a previously mysterious third category. People like Mike Leach and Chip Kelly have chosen to run very few plays and few formations. The genius in that is they constantly rep the plays to the point of near perfection. Combine that with top FBS college talent and that’s the difference between going to a BCS game and not making a bowl at all.
Over the past 10 years many fledgling programs have been turned around by one of the myriad of coaches running these systems. I’d be willing to bet that over 30% of FBS teams run some version of the spread “Air Raid” offense. The offense typically puts up huge numbers and teams using it have better than average records to say the least.
The logical reaction to this type of success is, “why not run it in the NFL”? After all, better talent should equal better results right? As Lee Corso says, “not so fast my friend”. The average playbook in the NFL is over 500 pages long. The average team has 20-25 different protection schemes and Defensive Coordinators have hundreds of blitz combinations they can run at any given time from any given set. Although there are time restrictions with players in the NFL, the coaches have nothing to think about but football. No recruiting, not making sure their star receiver goes to class, etc. There is no offensive scheme around that a defensive coordinator can’t figure out how to stop with enough time.
I’m not saying that these college offenses can’t be used at all. What I am saying is they do not have enough volume to be effective over a long 16 game season. Especially with the amount of film that is available to study. In my opinion teams in the NFL would be better suited by packaging these systems and using them as part of their offense rather than being “the” offense.
The gold standard in the NFL for consistent offense has been the New England Patriots. They are masters at adding new wrinkles each week without going away from their base offense. They might come out one week with mostly 3 and 4 WR sets, followed by two back formations the next week. They keep defensive coordinators guessing which leads to better matchups and the offense controlling the tempo.
If there is one team that has continued to be simplistic by NFL standards with its offense and has still been successful it’s the Colts of the Peyton Manning era and currently the Denver Broncos. They stay in mostly one back sets with balanced 2x2 or trips 3x1 formations. They only have a few different runs and their route combinations are fairly simple as well. They also put up big numbers and look unstoppable at times. However, in the playoffs when the going gets tough, they have a history of not performing up to their capability. Maybe it’s less about Peyton Manning and more about the Offense and their lack of volume to defend against.
